Combined effects of tactical, technical and contextual factors on shooting effectiveness in European professional soccer

Joaquin Gonzalez-Rodenas, Michalis Mitrotasios, Rafael Aranda and Vasilis Armatas

International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 2020, vol. 20, issue 2, 280-293

Abstract: The aim of this paper was to investigate the combined effects of tactical, technical and contextual dimensions on shooting effectiveness in European professional soccer. The sample included 1608 team possessions that led to a shot from 80 random matches (English Premier League = 20; Spanish La Liga = 20; Italian Serie A = 20; German Bundesliga = 20), which were evaluated by multidimensional observation. Multilevel logistic regression models were constructed to determine the effects of nine technical-tactical dimensions and four contextual variables on the shooting effectiveness. Multivariate analyses showed that shooting from the ultra-offensive zone was more effective than shooting from the offensive and advanced zones (OR = 0.385: CI: 0.263–0.564; P > 0.001 – OR = 0.101; CI: 0.054–0.188; P.0.001). Also, shooting against opponent defensive pressure decreased the probabilities of scoring goal, in comparison with shooting without defensive pressure (OR = 1.542; CI: 1.032–2.304; P.0.05). Additionally, high-ranked teams had higher odds of scoring goal than low-ranked teams (OR = 2.028; CI: 1.281–3.211; P > 0.01) when shooting at goal, regardless of the effect of the defensive pressure. This study concludes that not only offensive but also defensive and contextual dimensions play a relevant impact on determining the shooting effectiveness in European professional soccer.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2020.1743163

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