Timing is everything: a quantitative study of presidentialist regime dynamics in Eurasia, 1992–2016

Henry E. Hale

Post-Soviet Affairs, 2018, vol. 34, issue 5, 267-281

Abstract: Why do some countries with presidentialist constitutions feature more political closure than others at a given time? A quantitative study of post-Soviet countries since independence finds that much of the observed variation in political closure reflects timing, or the particular point at which a country happens to be within a regime cycle, rather than structural or other factors usually cited to explain regime change. Specifically, how much time a president has had to coordinate rivalrous networks around his or her authority is at least as strong a predictor of the level of regime closure as are economic development, economic growth, resource rents, proximity to Europe, and key cultural factors, even when controlling for the level of closure in the preceding year. This pattern is not found among countries with divided-executive constitutions, indicating it is related to the constitution rather than a general phenomenon.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2018.1500094

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