Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration

Anna Klabunde, Sabine Zinn, Frans Willekens and Matthias Leuchter

Population Studies, 2017, vol. 71, issue 0, 51-67

Abstract: We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.

Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1350281

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