Choosing the choice: Reflections on modelling decisions and behaviour in demographic agent-based models

Jonathan Gray, Jason Hilton and Jakub Bijak

Population Studies, 2017, vol. 71, issue 0, 85-97

Abstract: This paper investigates the issues associated with choosing appropriate models of choice for demographic agent-based models. In particular, we discuss the importance of context, time preference, and dealing with uncertainty in decision modelling, as well as the heterogeneity between agents in their decision-making strategies. The paper concludes by advocating empirically driven, modular, and multi-model approaches to designing simulations of human decision-making, given the lack of an agreed strategy for dealing with any of these issues. Furthermore, we suggest that an iterative process of data collection and simulation experiments, with the latter informing future empirical data collection, should form the basis of such an endeavour. The discussion is illustrated with reference to selected demographic agent-based models, with a focus on migration.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1350280

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