The changing relationship between unemployment and total fertility

Deniz Karaman Örsal and Joshua R. Goldstein

Population Studies, 2018, vol. 72, issue 1, 109-121

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there has been a fundamental change in the relationship between economic conditions and fertility. We use panel data methods to study the short-term changes in total fertility and the unemployment rate in a range of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1957 to 2014. We find that although fertility was counter-cyclical before 1970, with good economic times being associated with lower fertility, since then it has become pro-cyclical, with good economic times being associated with higher fertility.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1404624

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