Handling Compounded Uncertainty in Spatial Planning and Humanitarian Action in Unexpected Floods in Wayanad, Kerala: Towards a Contextualised Contingency Planning Approach

Mrudhula Koshy, Rolee Aranya and Hilde Refstie

Planning Theory & Practice, 2022, vol. 23, issue 5, 703-723

Abstract: Increasing environmental crises due to climate change calls for bridging the research and operational logics of spatial planning and humanitarian response. This article explores how long-term spatial planning and short-term humanitarian responses relate to three facets of uncertainty that are particularly relevant in developmental contexts, namely epistemic uncertainty, ontic uncertainty, and ambiguity. The authors explore these facets through a case study of uncertainty, that of unexpected monsoon floods in 2018 and 2019 in Wayanad, a peri-urban hill district in Kerala, India. Through the case, they show that compounded uncertainty leads to ambiguity in action, but that this ambiguity can be ameliorated by a contextualised contingency planning approach. The authors conclude the article by outlining the approach in spatial planning that prioritises flexible and adaptable decision-making to enhance iterative organisational learning and action, as well as cross-sectoral dialogue to deal with uncertainty.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1080/14649357.2022.2143548

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