Secular stagnation and climate change

Matthew Soener

Review of International Political Economy, 2025, vol. 32, issue 6, 2021-2054

Abstract: There is increasing attention and debate about the capitalist ‘growth paradigm’ and climate change. Yet, frequently left out of these discussions is the medium to long-term decline in growth rates or ‘secular stagnation’. In this article, I draw on Marxist and Post-Keynesian perspectives to square this circle. I argue there are distinct stagnation and emissions pathways based on a core/periphery model of the world economy. In the Global North, emission stocks are high but have been falling due to de-industrialisation, while activities replacing industry like services, intellectual property regimes, and financialisation are associated with stagnation. In the Global South, emissions are rising as industrial activity has relocated there. However, the fragmented, competitive, and subordinate character of global production has produced a problem of overproduction based on high exploitation thereby leading to stagnation as well. Analysing stagnation reveals a number of important structural forces at play in emissions and gives new insight into the political economy of climate change.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/09692290.2025.2519187

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