 Explaining Welfare Caseload Reduction in New York State: The Effect of Policy or Economy?Hyun Joo Chang International Review of Public Administration, 2007, vol. 12, issue 1, 105-117 Abstract: Since the federal welfare reform caseloads have been on a downward trend in the U.S. and there exist substantial debate on the causes for the decline. As a case study on New York State, this study analyzes what has explained welfare caseload decline since welfare reform. This study employs an ARIMA model with intervention analysis using the gross state product as an economic force that reflects labor demand and supply, and policy intervention variables to determine which of the welfare reform and strengthened economy explains the welfare caseload reduction. This study concludes that welfare caseload decline in New York State is attributed to the programmatic changes of welfare reform and the state economy has not explained the decline. Local employment growth that results from economic growth has not affected exit rates from welfare and has not reflected the availability of jobs to welfare recipients. Rather, welfare recipients left welfare due to stringent work requirements and time-limited benefits. Date: 2007 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:rrpaxx:v:12:y:2007:i:1:p:105-117 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from DOI: 10.1080/12294659.2007.10805095 Access Statistics for this article International Review of Public Administration is currently edited by Ralph Brower More articles in International Review of Public Administration from Taylor & Francis Journals |
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