The Economy and Elections in Korea: an Analysis of the Political Business Cycle

Jang-Ho Park

International Review of Public Administration, 2011, vol. 16, issue 2, 117-142

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine whether or not the political business cycle exists in Korea, which may be a crucial factor in explaining the business cycle and the relationship between the economy and elections. I also examine the main factors manipulating the economy to determine if there is evidence of a political business cycle. The period covered by the research is from 1963 to 2002 and IFS data were used to guarantee the neutrality and objectivity of the analysis. I analyzed the relationship between various macroeconomic variables and presidential and National Assembly elections. I checked on the existence and magnitude of the political business cycle in three different time spans using quarterly data: the whole period (1963–2002), before democratization (1963–1986), and after democratization (1987–2002). I found some evidence of a PBC related to presidential elections after Korea was democratized. Money supply (monetary base) was used to boost the economy before elections. I could not find any significant evidence of a PBC related to National Assembly elections.

Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.1080/12264431.2011.10805199

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