Chaos, Uncertainty, and Policy Choice: Utilizing the Adaptive Model

Deug Whan Sa

International Review of Public Administration, 2004, vol. 8, issue 2, 119-128

Abstract: This paper explores new policy models adaptable to a new policy environment, ‘Age of Chaos,’ characterized by uncertainty, complexity and nonlinear relations. This article identifies the limits of existing policy choice models, presents an adaptive model as a new explanatory tool that suits situations of extreme uncertainty, complexity and chaos. It addresses a series of discussions on contents, features and utility. An adaptive model as a decision-making principle in which complex factors seek norms in positive sum amidst dynamic uncertainty in a policy environment does not only complement existing theoretical deficiency current policy-making models, but also reaches an explanation surpassing them. It also has the features of a self-access study system settling, managing inherent policy contradictions and tracing goals in the midst of extreme disorder and chaos through an infinite self-evolution process. Ultimately, it can develop into a policy choice model with the highest adaptability. In the uncertain, dynamic and non-linear chaotic environments of today, this model can control disturbance in policy outcomes and deal with interference by unpredictable opportunistic factors. It can inspire officers in charge of policy implementation, and force bureaucratic government organizations into self-organization and change.

Date: 2004
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DOI: 10.1080/12294659.2004.10805034

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