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Some Evidence of Persistence in South African Financial Time Series

D Bendel, E vd M Smit and W D Hamman

Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 1996, vol. 20, issue 1, 59-83

Abstract: This article analyses some South African financial time series in order to ascertain whether long-term persistence is present. The technique used is that of Rescaled Range Analysis. The effect of short-term stochastic processes on Rescaled Range Analysis is determined, and methods to eliminate this bias are investigated.Long-term persistence is found for the share indices studied. The evidence for long-term persistence in the gold price is equivocal, and no evidence is found for long-term persistence in the interest and exchange rate series. The presence of long-term persistence in the share indices is incompatible with the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

Date: 1996
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DOI: 10.1080/03796205.1996.12129089

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