The Macro-Economic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa

L L Ellis, Ben Smit and Pieter Laubscher ()

Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 2003, vol. 27, issue 2, 1-28

Abstract: The macro-economic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa over the next 10 to 15 years is investigated by means of a macro-econometric model of the South African economy. The analysis is based on a set of HIV/AIDS inclusive and exclusive demographic projections for South Africa for the period up to 2015. The paper provides a detailed description of the various macro-economic channels of impact, the assumptions required to generate the model simulations, the macro-economic results and a sensitivity analysis of the main assumptions. The results suggest that although HIV/AIDS is expected to have a marked impact on macro-economic conditions in South Africa, the impact is not likely to be devastating to longer-term growth and development.

Date: 2003
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DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2003.12106345

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