Futures Prices and the Expected Future Spot Prices of Selected South African Financial Futures Contracts: A Note

J de K Keyser and E vd M Smit

Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 2003, vol. 27, issue 3, 121-132

Abstract: An unique data base allows a limited examination of the relationship between the futures prices of some financial assets and the expected spot prices of these assets. The evidence points towards the fact that the futures prices of these assets are firstly, not unbiased forecasts of future spot prices and secondly consistent with the presence of market risk-premiums. Part of this premium, however, should be seen as a reward for forecasting skills rather than risk acceptance. Some evidence is provided that indicates that the pattern in bond yields is consistent with the Keynes-Hicks theory of normal backwardation.

Date: 2003
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DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2003.12106356

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