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Structural estimates of the South African sacrifice ratio

Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher and Naser Yenus Nuru

Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 2024, vol. 48, issue 1, 42-61

Abstract: This paper estimates the output cost of fighting inflation—the sacrifice ratio—for the South African economy using quarterly data spanning the period 1998:1–2019:3. To compute the sacrifice ratio, the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model developed by Cecchetti and Rich (2001) based on Cecchetti (1994) is employed. Our findings show us a small sacrifice ratio, which lies within the range 0.00002–0.231 percent with an average of 0.031 percent, indicating a low level of output to be sacrificed while fighting inflation. Hence, the reserve bank is recommended to sustain an inflation rate within the target range and reap the benefits of a predictable and stable price path, as restrictive monetary policy has only a transitory effect on real variables like output.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2023.2268296

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