A causal analysis between exports, imports and GDP per capita in the Southern African Customs Union Countries

Event P. Molepo and André C. Jordaan

Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 2024, vol. 48, issue 2, 168-185

Abstract: This study investigates the direction of causality between exports, imports and GDP per capita in the SACU countries: Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Eswatini (Swaziland). The Toda-Yamamoto augmented Granger no-causality approach is applied. The study finds mixed causality results between exports, imports, and GDP per capita for the different countries. The export-led growth hypothesis is supported for Botswana and Eswatini, while import-led growth hypothesis is only confirmed in Namibia. Results suggest that a bi-directional Granger causality between exports and growth for Botswana and bi-directional Granger causality between imports and growth for Lesotho and South Africa exist. There is therefore no clear time-precedence. Finally, there is evidence of growth-led export hypothesis for Botswana, Lesotho, and South Africa. These mixed findings indicate that SACU countries should not solely dedicate their available resources to pursuing trade openness in promoting economic development but also address domestic economic reform strategies.

Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/03796205.2024.2343723 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:rseexx:v:48:y:2024:i:2:p:168-185

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/rsee20

DOI: 10.1080/03796205.2024.2343723

Access Statistics for this article

Studies in Economics and Econometrics is currently edited by Willem Bester

More articles in Studies in Economics and Econometrics from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().