Olympic medals and demo-economic factors: Novel predictors, the ex-host effect, the exact role of team size, and the “population-GDP” model revisited

George Vagenas and Eleni Vlachokyriakou

Sport Management Review, 2012, vol. 15, issue 2, 211-217

Abstract: ► Olympic team size (athletes) is the best single mediator–predictor of Olympic medals share. ► Best determinants are growth rate, unemployment, health expenditures, ex-host, and population. ► Growth rate, unemployment, and health expenditures are novel determinants. ► Labor force and inflation do not constitute significant determinants of Olympic success. ► The “population-GDP” model is lacking completeness in explaining the number of Olympic medals won.The present study revisited the problem of estimating Olympic success by critical demo-economic indicators. The sample consisted of the 75 winner countries at the Athens 2004 Olympic Games (not previously analyzed). Medal totals were log-linearly regressed on land, population, GDP, urban population, inflation, growth rate, unemployment, labor force, health expenditures, ex-host, and team size. Multiple regression assumptions were tested with proper diagnostics including collinearity. Olympic team size was the best single predictors of Olympic medals (R2 = 0.690, p

Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1016/j.smr.2011.07.001

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