The formation of aggregate expectations: wisdom of the crowds or media influence?

Jose M. Pavía, Itziar Gil-Carceller, Alfredo Rubio-Mataix, Vicente Coll, Jose A. Alvarez-Jareño, Cristina Aybar and Salvador Carrasco-Arroyo

Contemporary Social Science, 2019, vol. 14, issue 1, 132-143

Abstract: The general elections of 2015 in Spain were elections of change. Two new parties for which voters had no previous historical reference points burst onto the parliamentary scene. Two (partially) opposed theories vie to offer an explanation as to how voters build their aggregate electoral expectations. In this paper, we investigate which mechanism has the greatest influence on the formation of expectations: published opinion or social interactions. Likewise, we also study if there is an ideological bias in the voters’ perception of the future results of the electoral battle. Based on analysis of microdata from a survey (sample size = 14,262) conducted in Spain on the occasion of the general elections of 2015, we provide evidence: firstly, that the published surveys are the main source used by voters to configure their aggregate expectations; and secondly, that the interpretation and projection that voters make about reality is not neutral, but strongly influenced by their own beliefs and preferences.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/21582041.2017.1367831

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