Economy-wide assessment of potential long-term impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan

Khalid Siddig, Mohammed Basheer and Jonas Luckmann

Water International, 2021, vol. 46, issue 3, 325-341

Abstract: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is expected to double Ethiopia’s electricity generation and impact River Nile flows to Sudan and Egypt. We analyse potential economy-wide impacts on Sudan of the GERD’s long-term operation using a computable general equilibrium model and outputs of previous studies from biophysical models. Based on a 20% increase in hydropower and an assumed rapid irrigation expansion timeline, the results show that the GERD could help increase Sudan's accumulated gross domestic product (GDP) by US$47-83 billion over the period 2020-60 (excluding initial investment costs and other GERD negative and positive impacts). The choice of crops in new irrigation schemes is key to increasing Sudan’s macro-economic benefits.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1080/02508060.2021.1885126

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