A new parametric model for converting excess mortality from clinical studies to insured population

Igor Itskovich and Bradley T. Roudebush

Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2015, vol. 2015, issue 2, 184-199

Abstract: We propose a new parametric model – the generalized excess mortality (GEM) model – for converting excess mortality from clinical to insured population. The GEM model has been formulated as a generalization of the excess death rate (EDR) model in terms of a single adjustment parameter (m) that accounts for a partial elimination of a clinical study’s EDR due to the underwriting selection process. The suggested value of the parameter m depends only on the ratio of the impairment’s prevalence rate in the insured population to that in the clinical population. The model’s development has been implemented in two phases: the design phase and the validation phase. In the design phase, the data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I pertaining to three broad impairments (diabetes, coronary artery disease, and asthma) have been used. As a result, the following equation for the parameter m has been proposed: mk = (Pi,k/Pc,k)n, where Pi,k, Pc,k are the prevalence rates of impairment k under study in the insured and the clinical populations, respectively, and n a single universal parameter with its value best approximated as n = 0.5 (95% confidence interval 0.5–0.6). In the validation phase, several independent clinical studies of three other impairments (Crohn’s disease, epilepsy, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) were used. As it has been demonstrated in the validation phase, for a number of impairments, the GEM model can provide a better fit for observed insured population mortality than either one of the conventional EDR or mortality ratio models.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2013.807299

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