Spatial statistical modelling of insurance risk: a spatial epidemiological approach to car insurance

Oskar Tufvesson, Johan Lindström and Erik Lindström

Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2019, vol. 2019, issue 6, 508-522

Abstract: Spatial models, such as the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model, have long been used in epidemiology and disease mapping. A common research question in these subjects is modelling the number of disease events per region; here the BYM models provides a holistic framework for both covariates and dependencies between regions. We use these tools to assess the relative insurance risk associated with the policyholders geographical location. A Bayesian modelling approach is presented and an elastic net is used to reduce the large number of possible geographic covariates. The final inference is performed using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. The model is applied to car insurance data from If P&C Insurance together with spatially referenced covariate data of high resolution, provided by Insightone. The entire analysis is performed using freely available R-packages. Including spatial dependence when modelling the number of claims significantly improves on the result obtained using ordinary generalised linear models. However, the support for adding a spatial component to the model for claims cost is weaker.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2019.1576146

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