A note on pandemic mortality rates

Patrik Andersson and Mathias Lindholm

Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2022, vol. 2022, issue 3, 269-278

Abstract: This paper considers a population being affected by a mortality stress during a limited period of time, for example a pandemic. It has recently been suggested that the mortality stress during a pandemic can be viewed as a temporary shift in apparent age. We instead suggest to use a frailty based model where the baseline mortality rate is being stressed. This approach will in a natural way imply post-pandemic mortality rates at the population level. In particular, analytical results concerning the population mortality rate during and after a pandemic are derived. Under general assumptions it is shown that, compared to a non stressed scenario, the mortality is higher during the pandemic and lower after. These general results are exemplified for the Gompertz-Makeham law where more precise results can be obtained using its proportional frailty representation. The results are illustrated based on COVID-19 data for the Swedish population and we estimate the effect of the pandemic on the expected life time of an individual.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2021.1966830

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