Ruin in a continuous-time risk model with arbitrarily dependent insurance and financial risks triggered by systematic factors

Yang Yang, Yahui Fan and Kam Chuen Yuen

Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2024, vol. 2024, issue 4, 361-382

Abstract: This paper is devoted to asymptotic analysis for a continuous-time risk model with the insurance surplus process and the log-price process of the investment driven by two dependent jump-diffusion processes. We take into account arbitrary dependence between the insurance claims and their corresponding investment return jumps caused by a sequence of systematic factors, whose arrival times constitute a renewal counting process. Under the framework of regular variation, we obtain a simple and unified asymptotic formula for the finite-time ruin probability as the initial wealth becomes large. It turns out that, in the weakly dependent case, the tails of the claims determine the exact decay rate of the finite-time ruin probability while the investment return jumps only contribute to the coefficient of the asymptotic formula; however, in the strongly dependent case, they both produce essential impacts on the finite-time ruin probability which is under-estimated in the weakly dependent case.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2023.2256508

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