Comparative optimism for judgements about online identity theft

Lucy R. Betts, Thom Baguley, Sarah E. Gardner, Peter J. R. Macaulay and Sondos E. Metwally

Behaviour and Information Technology, 2025, vol. 44, issue 15, 3642-3656

Abstract: Individuals believe that negative events are less likely to happen to them than others – termed optimistic bias. The research aimed to explore developmental differences in comparative optimism for online identity theft (Study 1) and the impact of previous experiences of identity theft and representativeness of comparator groups for such judgements (Study 2). Study 1 included 101 late adolescents, 226 emerging adults, and 147 adults. Study 2 included 313 university students. In both studies, participants provided judgements about the likelihood of experiencing online identity theft and in Study 2 experiences of identity theft, fear of identity theft, and representativeness. Both studies provided evidence of optimistic bias; participants reported that they were less at risk of experiencing online identity theft than others. There was no effect of age (Study 1), and judgements were not accounted for by the targets' representativeness of the comparator groups (Study 2). Fear of identity theft mediated the relationship between previous experiences of identity theft and perceptions of risk for the self (Study 2). The findings contribute to our understanding of how online risks are perceived and have implications for online safety messages.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/0144929X.2024.2443799

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