China's role in attaining the global 2°C target

Kejun Jiang, Xing Zhuang, Ren Miao and Chenmin He

Climate Policy, 2013, vol. 13, issue sup01, 55-69

Abstract: In the recent climate change negotiations it was declared that the increase in global temperature should be kept below 2°C by 2100, relative to pre-industrial levels. China's CO 2 emissions from energy and cement processes already account for nearly 24% of global emissions, a trend that is expected to keep increasing. Thus the role of China in global GHG mitigation is crucial. A scenario analysis of China's CO 2 emissions is presented here and the feasibility of China reaching a low-carbon scenario is discussed. The results suggest that recent and continued technological progress will make it possible for China to limit its CO 2 emissions and for these emissions to peak before 2025 and therefore that the global 2°C target can be achieved. Policy relevance In signing the Copenhagen Accord, China agreed to the global 2°C target. Results from this article could be used to justify low-carbon development policies and negotiations. While many still doubt the feasibility of a low-carbon pathway to support the global 2°C target, the results suggest that such a pathway can be realistically achieved. This conclusion should increase confidence and guide the policy framework further to make possible China's low-carbon development. Related policies and measures, such as renewable energy development, energy efficiency, economic structure optimization, technology innovation, low-carbon investment, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) development, should be further enhanced. Furthermore, China can play a larger role in the international negotiations process. In the global context, the 2°C target could be reaffirmed and a global regime on an emissions mitigation protocol could be framed with countries' emissions target up to 2050.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2012.746070

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