Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan

Aiymgul Kerimray, Kanat Baigarin, Rocco De Miglio and Giancarlo Tosato

Climate Policy, 2016, vol. 16, issue 3, 332-352

Abstract: This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO 2 from combustion by about 85 MtCO 2 by 2030 -- 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO 2 not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO 2 by 2030.

Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2014.1003525

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