Statistical analysis of CDM capacity-building needs

Lubomir Nondek and Anne Arquit Niederberger

Climate Policy, 2004, vol. 4, issue 3, 249-268

Abstract: This article presents statistical analysis of a selection of data collected under a World Bank survey on Kyoto Protocol capacity-building needs in 16 potential clean development mechanism (CDM) host countries. It focuses on three interrelated issues: perceived barriers to the implementation of the CDM, expert judgment regarding the human, institutional and systemic capacity that must be built to overcome these barriers, and views on the most urgent steps that need to be taken to facilitate CDM implementation. The analysis reveals that in many countries there is a wide diversity of opinion across the group of respondents, which could be caused by a number of factors, including the inherent complexity of the Kyoto flexible mechanisms, limited understanding of their basic functioning and potential in the local context, and the differing needs and interests of stakeholder groups. Despite this, many statistically significant preferences can be identified at the national level. Among nations, two broad groups of countries emerge, which can be traced back to their overall level of capacity development. The statistical analysis presented in this article lends credibility to qualitative conclusions drawn from previous interpretations of the survey data and has implications for the design of capacity-building efforts. However, in evaluating capacity-building needs and the readiness of countries to engage in CDM deals, potential investors and providers of capacity-building services will need to consider not only the results of this type of opinionbased needs assessment, but also the practical experience gained through CDM transactions.

Date: 2004
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DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2004.9685524

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