The odd-even driving restriction in Delhi – a causal analysis

Debarun Sengupta and Sarani Saha

Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2025, vol. 14, issue 4, 378-397

Abstract: The odd-even restriction in Delhi allows private car owners to utilise their cars only on alternative days of the week, depending on the last digit of the registration number. In a mega-city like Delhi, where a high number of personal vehicles and excessive pollution concentration simultaneously exist, adopting such restrictions might help minimise emissions streaming from vehicular sources. A handful of empirical studies have estimated the policy effect but failed to provide its causal impact on air pollution levels, which is necessary for understanding the effectiveness of the odd-even restrictions. Therefore, we utilise the quasi-experimental design to find a causal relationship between driving restrictions and air pollutants (mainly generated from vehicular sources) across different policy rounds. Under quasi-experimental design, the study employs the triple difference technique on hourly air quality data. The findings of the empirical exercise indicate that the driving restriction reduces the average concentration levels of CO and PM2.5 pollutants during our restriction period. Moreover, the findings justify the short-run effectiveness of the driving restriction policy, as individuals may find ways to counter the policy in the long run.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/21606544.2025.2548778

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