Cueing a submarine from standoff to ambush a target in an anti-submarine environment: How often can the cue be a false alarm?

Patrick Chisan Hew

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2018, vol. 69, issue 6, 919-927

Abstract: Ambushing an adversary’s vessels as they transit a chokepoint is a key mission for submarines. While the submarine could patrol inside the chokepoint, anti-submarine capabilities are making such patrols too dangerous. Emerging technologies could allow the submarine to stand off at a safe location, and move forward to the chokepoint when cued. There is a need for analysis that can establish the concept’s viability, and whether the technologies are mature enough to be developed into working systems. The important factor is the rate at which the submarine is cued to a target that is not actually present—a false alarm—for as the submarine is clearing a false alarm, it is exposed to counter-acquisition. We establish the false alarm performance that is acceptable, for a given probability of the submarine being counter-acquired.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1057/s41274-017-0274-8

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