Comparing probabilistic predictive models applied to football

Marcio Alves Diniz, Rafael Izbicki, Danilo Lopes and Luis Ernesto Salasar

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2019, vol. 70, issue 5, 770-782

Abstract: We propose two Bayesian multinomial-Dirichlet models to predict the final outcome of football (soccer) matches and compare them to three well-known models regarding their predictive power. All the models predicted the full-time results of 1710 matches of the first division of the Brazilian football championship and the comparison used three proper scoring rules, the proportion of errors and a calibration assessment. We also provide a goodness of fit measure. Our results show that multinomial-Dirichlet models are not only competitive with standard approaches, but they are also well calibrated and present reasonable goodness of fit.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2018.1457485

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