Optimising darts strategy using Markov decision processes and reinforcement learning

Graham Baird

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2020, vol. 71, issue 6, 1020-1037

Abstract: This article determines an aim point selection strategy for players in order to improve their chances of winning at the classic darts game of 501. Although previous studies have considered the problem of aim point selection in order to maximise the expected score a player can achieve, few have considered the more general strategical question of minimising the expected number of turns required for a player to finish. By casting the problem as a Markov decision process and utilising the reinforcement learning method of value iteration, a framework is derived for the identification of the optimal aim point for a player in an arbitrary game scenario. This study represents the first analytical investigation of the full game under the normal game rules, and is, to our knowledge, the first application of reinforcement learning methods to the optimisation of darts strategy. The article concludes with an empirical study investigating the optimal aim points for a number of player skill levels under a range of game scenarios.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2019.1610341

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