Forecasting number of corner kicks taken in association football using compound Poisson distribution

Stan Yip, Yinghong Zou, Ronald Hung and Ka Fai Cedric Yiu

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2024, vol. 75, issue 11, 2127-2137

Abstract: This article presents a holistic compound Poisson regression model framework to forecast number of corner kicks taken in association football. Corner kick taken events are often decisive in the match outcome and inherently arrive in batch with serial clustering pattern. Providing parameter estimates with intuitive interpretation, a class of compound Poisson regression including a Bayesian implementation of geometric-Poisson distribution are introduced. With a varying shape parameter, the corner counts serial correlation between matches is handled naturally within the Bayesian model. In this study, information elicited from cross-market betting odds was used to improve the model predictability. Margin application methods to adjust market inefficiency in raw odds are also discussed.

Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/01605682.2024.2306170 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:tjorxx:v:75:y:2024:i:11:p:2127-2137

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/tjor20

DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2024.2306170

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of the Operational Research Society is currently edited by Tom Archibald

More articles in Journal of the Operational Research Society from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().