Early warning model based on support vector machine ensemble algorithm

Sang-sang He, Wen-hui Hou, Zi-yu Chen, Hui Liu, Jian-qiang Wang and Peng-fei Cheng

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2025, vol. 76, issue 3, 411-425

Abstract: Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a powerful machine learning technique often applied in various early warning scenarios. When using SVM for binary classification, its output results can be converted into a probability distribution based on sample categories. Through the analysis of the results, it is found that when the probability of a sample belonging to a positive class is equivalent to the probability of a sample belonging to a negative class, there is a high possibility of misclassification of the sample. To address this issue, this study proposes a new SVM ensemble model construction method. We generate SVM sub-classifiers to extract error prone set, and utilise three different combination rules to construct ensemble model based on the output probability of the samples. The accuracy of the whole data set is improved for the classification accuracy of the easily misclassified data are improved. This research evaluated the model based on Wind turbine SCADA data and UCI benchmark datasets. According to the research results, the accuracy rate of SCADA data is as high as 97.52%, and the accuracy rate of German credit data is 77.50%. Meanwhile, the comparison with other methods also validates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2024.2360111

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