Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an outbreak under the influence of behavioural and cultural aspects

Gozdem Dural

Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2025, vol. 76, issue 5, 951-970

Abstract: It is a common practice to employ non-pharmaceutical interventions during an outbreak, especially when the battle is with a brand-new virus where neither medical treatment nor vaccination are possible in immediate future. However, the effectiveness of interventions is said to be ambiguous given that it is under the influence of behavioural aspects of people. This study proposes a compartmental, age stratified system dynamics model that considers an outbreak case with no medical treatment, no vaccination and with finite period of immunity for those people who have recovered. By the means of this model, one can elaborate on the course of events under different combinations of non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school closure, remote working, travel restrictions and self quarantine by taking cultural and behavioural differences into account. Numerical studies inform that policy uptake level of individuals increases the effectiveness of interventions. Moreover, combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions reveal higher levels of effectiveness, where the highest marginal effect is reported with remote working. Additionally, we have found that longer duration of interventions is required to stop the outbreak, depending on transmission proportion and length of immunity period, whereas recurring on-off intervention policies aid to keep the spread of the disease at tractable levels.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2024.2406230

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