Near real-time bed modelling feasibility study

Tracey England, Daniel Gartner, Edward Ostler, Paul Harper, Doris Behrens, John Boulton, Dilwyn Bull, Claire Cordeaux, Ian Jenkins, Fiona Lindsay, Rhys Monk and Leanne Watkins

Journal of Simulation, 2021, vol. 15, issue 4, 261-272

Abstract: Hospital bed management is crucial to ensure that patients do not have to wait for the right bed for their care. A simulation model has been developed that mimics the bed management rules applied to the Trauma & Orthopaedic wards of a busy Welsh hospital. The model includes forecasting methodologies to predict the number of emergency admissions, split by gender. The model uses near real-time admission data to see whether patients will be admitted to a given ward on a given day in a 7-day planning horizon. The one-week feasibility pilot study examined the accuracy and usability of the tool. The study has shown that it is possible to correctly predict the short-term processes of a Trauma & Orthopaedic bed management system by accurately forecasting arrivals, using known data and statistical distributions to predict patient length of stay, and applying generic bed management rules to dictate their placement.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2019.1706434

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