Trust in supply forecast information sharing

Fatemeh Firouzi, Mohamad Y. Jaber and Enzo Baglieri

International Journal of Production Research, 2016, vol. 54, issue 5, 1322-1333

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the role of trust in supply forecast signalling in a supply chain with a supplier and a manufacturer in a one-shot game. It is assumed that the supplier faces a random yield uncertainty that is multiplied by the manufacturer’s order quantity. The supplier has a private forecast of yield risk. Based on the information, the supplier decides whether to share its forecast truthfully, or not to share. On the other hand, the manufacturer is faced with two ordering strategies. If it trusts the supplier’s report, then it updates its belief on the yield risk providing a forecast signal by the supplier. Otherwise, it orders based on its prior belief. We analytically obtain the optimal order quantity where the random yield uncertainty follows uniform distribution. The intuitive result indicates that the supplier has a tendency to deviate from reporting true forecast information. The numerical results support the intuitive conclusion.

Date: 2016
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00207543.2015.1068961 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:tprsxx:v:54:y:2016:i:5:p:1322-1333

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/TPRS20

DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2015.1068961

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Production Research is currently edited by Professor A. Dolgui

More articles in International Journal of Production Research from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().