What if the swans wreaking havoc in supply chains are grey not black?

Tony N.K. Lynch, Adrian E. Coronado Mondragon and Joo Y. Jung

International Journal of Production Research, 2026, vol. 64, issue 1, 151-167

Abstract: Grey Swan is a relatively new construct that has not been adequately operationalised in supply chain management research. This work provides a supply chain management explanation and perspective on Grey Swans by distinguishing their characteristics relative to their more inconspicuous kindred, the Black Swans. Predictability and consequences are used to differentiate between the types of risk represented by black and grey swan events, as these are precursors to a set of descriptive and prescriptive (normative) views resulting from two pilot studies. Pilot studies were conducted to establish the validity and reliability of four types of supply chain disruptions comprising: labour disputes, political instability, supplier insolvency and trade disputes. A framework with recommendations and proposed actions to lessen the effects of Grey Swans is formulated with examples of industries mitigating Grey Swans in supply chains. Ten anonymous experts with extensive managerial experience in supply chains participated in a Delphi study to validate and provide their views on the proposed framework, and their inputs were used to refine it. This work contributes to the body of knowledge comprising Grey Swans and their impact on supply chains by presenting a framework outlining strategies to aid decision-makers in mitigating the effects of Grey Swans.

Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2025.2543961

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