Incorporating uncertainty and risk in transportation investment decision-making
Sabyasachee Mishra,
Snehamay Khasnabis and
Subrat Swain
Transportation Planning and Technology, 2015, vol. 38, issue 7, 738-760
Abstract:
This paper presents a framework for addressing uncertainty and risk for large-scale transportation investments involving public-private participation. Demand, fare/toll and demand responsive costs are considered in the uncertainty analysis. Uncertainty analysis provides information on economic feasibility of the project. A set of relaxation policies is proposed to form various Ownership, Tenure and Governance (OTG) strategies reflecting the nature and level of participation by the public and private entity. A Monte Carlo Simulation-based Value at Risk is used to quantify risk. Finally, a methodology is proposed to integrate uncertainty and risk. The framework is tested on the proposed multibillion dollar Detroit River International Crossing connecting the cities of Detroit in the USA with Windsor in Canada. The analysis provides insights to probable outcomes for this transportation infrastructure investment under different OTG scenarios.
Date: 2015
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)
Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/03081060.2015.1059121 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:transp:v:38:y:2015:i:7:p:738-760
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/GTPT20
DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2015.1059121
Access Statistics for this article
Transportation Planning and Technology is currently edited by Dr. David Gillingwater
More articles in Transportation Planning and Technology from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().