Investigating the predictive performance of computational process activity-based transportation models

George Sammour, Koen Vanhoof, Tom Bellemans, Davy Janssens and Geert Wets

Transportation Planning and Technology, 2016, vol. 39, issue 6, 551-573

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to achieve a better understanding of computational process activity-based models, by identifying factors that influence the predictive performance of A Learning-based Transportation Oriented Simulation System model. Therefore, the work activity process model, which includes six decision steps, is investigated. The manner of execution in the process model contains two features, activation dependency and attribute interdependence. Activation dependency branches the execution of the simulation while attribute interdependence involves the inclusion of the decision outcome of a decision step as an attribute to subsequent decision steps. The model is experimented with by running the simulation in four settings. The performance of the models is assessed at three validation levels: the classifier or decision step level, the activity pattern sequence level and the origin--destination matrix level. The results of the validation analysis reveal more understanding of the model. Benchmarks and factors affecting the predictive performance of computational activity-based models are identified.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2016.1187807

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