Analyzing the impact of a planned transit-oriented development on mode share and traffic conditions

Zheng Zhu, Minha Lee, Yixuan Pan, Hang Yang and Lei Zhang

Transportation Planning and Technology, 2018, vol. 41, issue 8, 816-829

Abstract: Transit-oriented development (TOD) is a popular planning strategy used to maximize accessibility to transit for various trip purposes. The quantitative effects of TOD on travel mode shift and traffic congestion have not been extensively tested in the current literature. This paper utilizes a seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) mode share model and a mesoscopic dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model to analyze the impact of a planned TOD in Maryland. The proposed model aims at improving the understanding of the quantitative impacts of such a TOD on mode share and traffic congestion. The main result of the mode share model indicates that the increase in transit ridership for a transit accessible shopping center is not that significant. Local traffic conditions will deteriorate due to a lack of investment in road infrastructure planned for the TOD area. The proposed method could be a valuable tool for other indicative land development or transportation policy analyses.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2018.1526882

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