Development, practical challenges, and application of a state-wide transport model system in Australia

David A. Hensher, Chinh Q. Ho and Edward Wei

Transportation Planning and Technology, 2025, vol. 48, issue 1, 1-42

Abstract: This paper develops a regional strategic travel model system to predict expected changes in traffic volumes and public transport patronage up to 2056. On the supply side, we develop transport network datasets for four linehaul modes – train, coach, car, and plane, incorporating travel times, fares, costs, and service frequency. On the demand side, an aggregate modal share logit model for three trip purposes is estimated to identify the role of various trip attributes and socioeconomic characteristics to forecast modal shares in the base year 2016. The resulting models produce an accessibility index asess each mode role in defining the accessibility to each Statistical Area level 2 in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory. This index informs a residential population model to identify the relationship between population and accessibility, highlighting the wider impact of transport improvements on the regional economy. The model links population changes to travel demand and predicts induced demand under a business-as-usual scenario. The application of the model system is illustrated using a corridor between Sydney and Newcastle.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2024.2367757

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