The Third Limfjord Crossing: A Case of Pessimism Bias and Knowledge Filtering

Petter Næss

Transport Reviews, 2011, vol. 31, issue 2, 231-249

Abstract: Using the Environmental Impact Assesment (EIA) of the proposed Third Limfjord Crossing in Aalborg, Denmark, as an example, this paper discusses how pessimism bias against the no‐build alternative acted as an instrument to persuade decision‐makers into adopting a proposed road scheme. Assuming that traffic growth would be the same whether or not a new motorway was constructed, the planners in the Limfjord case concluded that intolerable congestion would arise in the absence of increased road capacity. The paper discusses how such bias was created through the assumptions of the Limfjord case traffic model, and gives an outline of the planning and decision‐making process in which the model was used. The latter includes a formal complaint opposing the motorway project and the responses to this complaint. The paper concludes that a process of knowledge filtering has taken place, where state‐of‐the‐art knowledge about induced and generated travel ended up being dismissed in the political and legal decision‐making system.

Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.1080/01441647.2010.534569

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