 The History of the Transport Future—Evaluating Dutch Transport Scenarios of the PastJan Anne Annema and Mig De Jong Transport Reviews, 2011, vol. 31, issue 3, 341-356 Abstract: This paper examines 42 business‐as‐usual (BAU) scenarios for future transport and traffic development in the Netherlands from the period 1970 to 2000. An important aspect of these scenarios is that they indicate the potential future state of the transport system if the policies in place at the time continue unchanged, thus raising issues which may require a policy response. This paper shows that in most of the important BAU transport scenario results of the past in the Netherlands, such as future car use and transport emissions, the policy makers were not misled. The prognoses for traffic congestion are an important exception as they underestimated the congestion problems that would arise. This paper shows that, based on the research it examines, BAU transport forecasting is an inaccurate practice. It is recommended that the BAU scenario designer communicates this high inaccuracy, enabling the policy maker to include the inherent future uncertainty in their decision‐making. Date: 2011 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:transr:v:31:y:2011:i:3:p:341-356 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from DOI: 10.1080/01441647.2010.527440 Access Statistics for this article Transport Reviews is currently edited by Professor David Banister and Moshe Givoni More articles in Transport Reviews from Taylor & Francis Journals |
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