Mortality Projections for Social Security Programs in Canada

Michel Montambeault and Jean-Claude Ménard

North American Actuarial Journal, 2010, vol. 14, issue 3, 316-337

Abstract: Worldwide, the 20th century brought tremendous reductions in mortality at all ages for both males and females. The reductions in mortality, combined with the aging of the baby boomers and lower fertility rates, are projected to increase the proportion of the Canadian population that is above age 65 in the coming decades. This paper examines past mortality trends in Canada and discusses how these trends may change over the next 75 years, thus influencing the growth of the elderly population. In addition, this paper describes the methods and assumptions used to project future mortality rates in Canada, and the results include assumed annual rates of mortality improvement and projected life expectancies. As well, this paper discusses stochastic time-series methods that are used to help quantify the variability in the mortality rate projections.

Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2010.10597594

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