A Synthesis Mortality Model for the Elderly

Karen C. Su and Jack C. Yue

North American Actuarial Journal, 2021, vol. 25, issue S1, S457-S481

Abstract: Mortality improvement has been a common phenomenon since the 20th century, and the human longevity continues to prolong. Postretirement life receives a lot of attention, and modeling mortality rates of the elderly (ages 65 years and beyond) is essential because life expectancy has reached the highest level in history. Mortality models can be divided into two groups, relational and stochastic models, but there is no consensus on which model is better in modeling mortality rates of the elderly. In this study, instead of choosing either a relational or stochastic model, we propose a synthesis model, selecting and modifying appropriate models from both groups, which not only has a satisfactory estimation result but also can be used for mortality projection. We use the data from the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Taiwan (data were from the Human Mortality Database) to evaluate the proposed approach. We found that the proposed model performs well and is a possible choice for modeling mortality rates of the elderly.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2019.1651659

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