Bivariate Poisson Credibility Model and Bonus–Malus Scale for Claim and Near-Claim Events

Pierre-Alexandre Simon, Julien Trufin and Michel Denuit

North American Actuarial Journal, 2025, vol. 29, issue 1, 74-93

Abstract: With the emergence of telematics, huge amounts of data have become available to insurers, raising the question of their integration into motor insurance pricing. Near-claim events are dangerous events that could have triggered a claim. Typically, they correspond to harsh deceleration, acceleration, or cornering. Based on the motor third-party liability insurance portfolio of an insurance company operating in Belgium, we highlight that deceleration events are the best candidates for characterizing near-claim events. Then, we propose to integrate these events in the pricing structure in addition to a policyholder’s claim history with the help of a bivariate Poisson-Lognormal credibility model. Finally, we design an original bonus–malus scale based on both claim and near-claim events.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2023.2293210

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