Impacts on Economic Security Programs of Rapidly Shifting Demographics

Robert Brown

North American Actuarial Journal, 2001, vol. 5, issue 1, 12-31

Abstract: This paper analyzes in some detail potential impacts on economic security programs—government, employer, and individual—that the aging of the baby boom generation may create. It begins by defining what is meant by “population aging” and concludes that fertility shifts are more important than improving life expectancy. It also argues that calling the baby boom the “postwar baby boom” is inaccurate and will lead to missed targets for product development and marketing. Finally, this section of the paper notes that the most rapidly growing segment of the population will be the oldest old—those age 85 and over, who will also put the greatest stress on the provision of health care and retirement income security.The paper then looks at other demographic shifts of importance, in particular female labor force participation rates. The impact of shifting demographics is reviewed for each sponsor of economic security programs: the government (health care and social security); the employer (pension plans and group benefits); and the individual. Points of concern and offsetting opportunities for the insurance industry are noted. Finally, the paper looks at whether we will be able to “afford” the sudden retirement of the baby boom. The conclusion is that this will be affordable if we can convince a portion of the labor force to stay active longer, and if we have healthy productivity growth rates. The problems of an aging population can all be viewed as opportunities for those who have the map.

Date: 2001
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DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2001.10595951

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