Stable Laws and the Present Value of Fixed Cash Flows

Marc Goovaerts, Ann De Schepper, David Vyncke, Jan Dhaene and Rob Kaas

North American Actuarial Journal, 2003, vol. 7, issue 4, 32-43

Abstract: In this paper, the authors consider the present value of a series of fixed cash flows under stochastic interest rates. To model these interest rates, they don’t use the common lognormal model, but stable laws, which better fit in with reality. Their main intention is to derive a result for the distribution function of such a present value. However, due to the dependencies between successive discounted payments, the calculation of an exact analytical distribution is impossible. Therefore, use is made of the methodology of comonotonic random variables and the convex ordering of risks, introduced by the same authors in some previous papers.The present paper starts with a brief overview of properties and features of stable laws, and of the possible application of the concept of convex ordering to sums of risks, which is also the situation for a present value of future payments. Afterwards, the authors show how, for the present value under investigation, an approximation in the form of a convex upper bound can be derived. This upper bound has an easier structure than the original present value, and they derive elegant calculation formulas for the distribution of this bound. Finally, they provide some numerical examples that illustrate the precision of the approximation. Due to the design of the present value and the construction of the upper bound, these illustrations show great promise concerning the accuracy of the approximation.

Date: 2003
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DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2003.10596116

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