Epidemic Modelling using Sars as a Case Study

Na Jia and Lawrence Tsui

North American Actuarial Journal, 2005, vol. 9, issue 4, 28-42

Abstract: The recent Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic has highlighted a new dimension to the risks confronting insurance companies. Conventional approaches to insurance pricing take an almost exclusively retrospective view of future mortality experience, extrapolating past mortality trends into the future. Such an approach fails to take account of mortality shocks such as epidemics, which may arise spontaneously and that are not reflected in past experience. If actuaries are to maintain their position as risk experts in an ever-changing world, it is important for the actuarial profession to adopt a more comprehensive approach to assessing risks that goes beyond past experience.This paper will take a look at the modelling of epidemics, using SARS as a case study, and will examine the potential impact of SARS and similar epidemics on insurance companies.

Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2005.10596223

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