Grading the Performance of Market-Timing Newsletters

John R. Graham and Campbell R. Harvey

Financial Analysts Journal, 1997, vol. 53, issue 6, 54-66

Abstract: Many investment newsletters offer market-timing advice; that is, they are supposed to recommend increased stock market weights before market appreciations and decreased weights before market declines. Examination of the performance of 326 newsletter asset-allocation strategies for the 1983–95 period shows that as a group, newsletters do not appear to possess any special information about the future direction of the market. Nevertheless, investment newsletters that are on a hot streak (have correctly anticipated the direction of the market in previous recommendations) may provide valuable information about future returns.

Date: 1997
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DOI: 10.2469/faj.v53.n6.2130

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