Harnessing Neuroscientific Insights to Generate Alpha

Elise Payzan-LeNestour, James Doran, Lionnel Pradier and Tālis J. Putniņš

Financial Analysts Journal, 2022, vol. 78, issue 2, 79-95

Abstract: Building on evidence from neuroscience and psychology, we predict that prolonged exposure to high volatility causes market participants to subsequently underestimate volatility (and vice versa), leading to predictability in stock returns. We find VIX distortions consistent with this prediction and construct a trading strategy that exploits it. Applied to SPY ETFs and VIX futures contracts, the strategy significantly outperforms a buy-and-hold index portfolio, with higher annualized performance, lower volatility, and alphas exceeding 4%.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1080/0015198X.2022.2034468

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